Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Trader profitability

I often see comments that say that 80-85% of traders dont make money. I think there are a multitude of reasons why this is the case. I will mention some here:
1. Lack of experience: This is where a trader does not have the experience to make good decisions. There is little one can do to avoid a lack of experience, other than to face it head on by reading books. You can always retreat to what you know, the markets you know, but of course its not bad to have setbacks, as long as you commit yourself to overcoming them, and have a strategy to do so.
2. Poor organisation: This is where a trader does not have the resources at his fingertips to solve problems. Common organisational errors include failing to
3. Poor planning: This is where traders dont anticipate the positive or negative consequences of their trading actions.
4. Poor discipline: Alot of traders have alot of difficulty sticking to their trading plan. They may or may not identify a list of things they have to do during the day, but they dont stick to it. They are distracted, demotivated, or otherwise not focused on their business.
5. Poor psychology: This is where a trader continues to make the same mistakes despite identifying the cause of the problem through a process of logic. There are several issues that arise related to trading psychology:
a. Self righteous: The trader needs to be right, so they turn a blind eye when the market turns against them. They dont even need to mount arguments, they are just hoping the market turns.
b. Self indulgence: There is a tendency to be undisciplined with trading. This is particularly the case in times of significant profits or loss, so you become loose with your investment decisions, or you take larger positions.
c. Making emotional decisions: Emotional decisions are motived not by rational arguments, but rather by fear or greed. The timing of these decisions is often very telling.

It goes without saying that trading suits only people with very healthy psychology. The reason is that traders actions in any instance have a great deal of bearing on how they feel about themselves. There is a tendency to place all the value of their actions on their trading results, as opposed to all the research they have done. One of the difficulties is that traders efforts are poorly correlated with their efforts. Success can be a fluke, and losses might happen despite some insightful thinking. eg. You anticipate a move in copper prices. It happens, but you fail to take profits because you were not paying attention or you anticpated a greater move.

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